WM

Earnings Surprise Track Record vs. Price Reaction

WM has beaten analysts in 5 of the last 8 reported quarters, a 62% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 1%. On the surface that suggests the company usually edges ahead of estimates. Yet the price reaction has followed a different script: across those same eight quarters, the average 5-day price move after earnings was -3.81%, classified as a downward drift.

Recent reports show the divergence clearly. The 2026-07-28 beat—actual EPS $2.02 versus a $1.98 estimate, a 2% surprise—brought a -1.17% next-day drop and a flat 0% five-day move. The 2026-04-28 beat, $1.81 actual versus $1.75 estimate (3.4% surprise), produced a 1.3% next-day gain but still drifted -1.26% over five days. The misses were punished harder: the 2026-01-28 report, actual EPS $1.93 versus $1.95 estimate (-1% surprise), fell -3.66% next-day and -2.23% over five days; the 2025-10-27 miss, $1.98 actual versus $2.01 estimate (-1.5% surprise), drove a -4.46% next-day drop and a -7.95% five-day drop.

Options-Flow Dynamics Around the Oct. 26 Report

WM’s next earnings release is scheduled for 2026-10-26 after the close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $2.18. As that date approaches, options markets commonly lift implied volatility into nearby strikes, raising the cost of both calls and puts because traders are pricing in the chance of a gap move, not necessarily a directional view. If options flow skews heavily toward one side, it can reveal where positioning is concentrated, but flow by itself does not forecast the post-report move.

The current snapshot shows WM at $226, below its 50-day EMA of $228.98, with an RSI of 42.9. A price near the 50-day EMA can make strikes around that level especially active for hedging. For options readers, the relevant comparison is implied earnings move versus historical realized move: one-day reactions ranged from 1.3% to -4.46% in the last four prints, while five-day swings ran from 0% to -7.95%.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

Discipline here means watching the gap between expectations and outcome, and between the initial reaction and follow-through. The historical average is clear: even with a 62% beat rate, the average 5-day post-earnings drift was -3.81%. That pattern puts attention on post-announcement price action rather than the headline surprise alone.

Specifics to monitor include the EPS surprise versus the $2.18 consensus, the next-day move versus the recent one-day range of 1.3% to -4.46%, and whether the five-day drift extends or reverses. Technical levels also matter: $226 sits below the 50-day EMA at $228.98, and RSI at 42.9 is neutral. Implied volatility behavior after the announcement matters too, because a rapid vol collapse can offset a correct directional read.

For a deeper dive into how institutional models, valuation frameworks, and sector context are shaping the setup ahead of the 2026-10-26 report, readers should explore the full institutional verdict.